I make bets with friends for fun and profit (but, mostly fun!).

Some bets are directional and not precise enough to be “prediction market grade.”

Ongoing bets

Bet Side When
In 2040, more than 50% of people living in developed countries will spend more than 5 hours a day on average in VR Against 2040
More people will live in San Francisco Metro Area at the end of 2024 than at the beginning of 2020 For 2025
First ectogenic baby by 2050 Against 2050
Crypto market cap will reach 3T or higher in 2023 Against 2024
First FDA approved drug for longevity purpose will hit the market on or before 2040 For 2041
ReFi market cap will reach 1B or higher on or before 2030 Against 2031
Twitter will file for bankruptcy on or before 2025 Against 2026
Cardano market cap will reach 100M or lower before 2030 Against 2030

Resolved bets

Bet Side Result When
Greg Abbot will win the Texas 2022 governor election, but not by more than 10 points For Lost 11/2022
FTX is net positive for crypto Against Won 11/2022
FTX is net positive for EA For Lost 11/2022
Roe v. Wade will be overturned before 2025 For Won 2022