bets

I make bets with friends for fun and profit (but, mostly fun!).

Some bets are directional and not precise enough to be “prediction market grade.”

Ongoing bets

Bet	Side	When
In 2040, more than 50% of people living in developed countries will spend more than 5 hours a day on average in VR	Against	2040
More people will live in San Francisco Metro Area at the end of 2024 than at the beginning of 2020	For	2025
First ectogenic baby by 2050	Against	2050
Crypto market cap will reach 3T or higher in 2023	Against	2024
First FDA approved drug for longevity purpose will hit the market on or before 2040	For	2041
ReFi market cap will reach 1B or higher on or before 2030	Against	2031
Twitter will file for bankruptcy on or before 2025	Against	2026
Cardano market cap will reach 100M or lower before 2030	Against	2030

Resolved bets

Bet	Side	Result	When
Greg Abbot will win the Texas 2022 governor election, but not by more than 10 points	For	Lost	11/2022
FTX is net positive for crypto	Against	Won	11/2022
FTX is net positive for EA	For	Lost	11/2022
Roe v. Wade will be overturned before 2025	For	Won	2022